2009 Nobel Prize in Literature
Today Romanian-German author Herta Müller won the Nobel Prize for literature. Amazingly, it was predicted yesterday by The Literary Saloon, based on several factors M.A. Orthofer lists.
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Thanks Trevor for a most interesting link.
I think what disturbs me most about it (and this is not a comment on the blogger) is that for the second year in a row it looks like punters betting on Nobel winners have inside information that they use in making bookie bets.
I am a gambler, but I don’t take part in betting on events where people with inside information tilt the odds. Sure looks to me that the Nobel has that problem. Which, frankly, seriously decreases the credibility of the Prize.
There certainly is no other explanation for how Müller’s odds increased from 50-1 to 3-1, especially when a similar, though less drastic move, occurred last year with le Clezio. However, if only you’d bet on Müller at the 50-1 phase!
I’m betting they’ll do their best to block the leak next year. I think the reason the Saloon had as many hits as he did was because they were trying to research what went wrong this year, and his is the best report out there.
Click here for a Wall Street Journal article: “Discovering Herta Müller.”